THE 3D-DOODLER, WILL IT BE ADOPTED?
Link to the 3D-doodler:
http://www.the3doodler.com/
Images of the 3D-doodler
and possible constructions:
Description of the 3D-doodler
The 3D-doodler is a 3D
printing device in the form of a pen that lets you hand-draw 3D objects. The
product is nearing production now. The device is quite simple. It can be used
within minutes, without needing any technical knowledge, software or computers.
It works a bit like a hot glue gun. It essentially takes the heated extrusion
head off a 3D printer and incorporates it into a standalone device. A single
piece of plastic (ABS or PLA, for the more environmentally minded) is threaded
through the back, fed through the pen and comes out melted through the tip. As
you draw with it, plastic comes out of the pen, is cooled by an integrated fan,
and solidifies right in front of you. It
can be used for drawing on any surface and it can be lifted up into the air in
order to create 3D objects. The idea
behind it is that since everyone knows how to use a pen and scribble, trace or
“wave” a finger in the air, everyone can use the 3D-doodler.The pen needs
either to be plugged in, though the company informs that they are also working
on a battery-powered version but they do not specify how long that would
actually run.
Possible target groups:
Architects, designers, engineers, artisans, street artists etc.
Framework for analysis of the 3D-doodler:
The assignment is to
predict whether this product will be adopted and if adopted at what rate this
will be done.
Everett M. Rogers
identifies five characteristics of innovations and argues that individuals`
perceptions of these characteristics predict the rate of adoption of
innovations. These characteristics are: Relative advantage, compatibility,
complexity, trialability and observability. These characteristics affect the
rate of adoption, defined as: The
relative speed with which an innovation is adopted by members of a social
system. Rogers`s theory generalizes that
perceived high degrees of relative advantage, compatibility, trialability and
observability in addition to a low degree of complexity is positively related
to the rate of adoption.
In addition to these
five perceived attributes of an innovation, Rogers identifies other variables
that affect an innovators rate of adoption. These are: The type of innovation
decision process, the nature of communication channels diffusing the
innovation, the nature of the social system in which the innovation is
diffusing and the extent of change agents` promotion efforts in diffusing an
innovation
I will use Rogers`
framework in my analysis of the product and I will only focus my analysis on
the five perceived characteristics.
Analysis of the product
1: Relative Advantage
Relative advantage is
the degree to which an innovation is perceived as being better than the idea it
supersedes.
The ideas that supersede
this product are firstly the standard pen/the“2D-pen”, secondly the physical
building of models in 3D using some sorts of fitted building materials and
thirdly the 3D-printer. People who rely on modeling of their ideas to perform
either in their jobs or in their creative free time could find this product
superior to all three of these ideas for several reasons. I will focus on how Usage - and Economic
factors express the products degree of relative advantage.
Usage factors:
Since the 3D-doodler is
a small portable device that does not rely on any software, it gives the user
the ability to get a 3D object of their ideas easily and almost wherever and
whenever they have a creative spur. This
is an advantage because a traditional pen will not allow the user to see their
results in 3D without the somewhat more troublesome process of either having to
use and have access to a 3D-printer or having to start the more time consuming
process of building the 3D- products with some other sorts of building
materials. It is an easy way for the user to both see and show others the product,
since it will materialize in 3D as it is drawn.
Also, the product has a wide range of usage besides drawing 3D models,
it can for example also be used for repairs and personalizing items. It is
relatively easy to adjust the flexibility versus brittleness in the creation
process. The user can simply make pieces thicker by going back and forth and
joining the strands, or go very slow to make a thick strand that will be less
flexible, but at the same time stronger and more able to support things.
However, a relative disadvantage is that the pen has to be recharged, something
you don’t need to do with a basic pen.
Another disadvantage is that it requires plastic to be able to operate
it. However people in the target group, designs of all sorts, would already be
used to having to rely on some sort of building material in order to
perform. A risk element is the fact that
the pen itself has a metal tip that can get as hot as 270C so it is not a toy
for children. But since the target group at this stage is not children, the
plastic extruded from 3D Doodler is safe to touch once it has left the pen and
lastly since there are no reasons for any user to touch the tip while in use
this does not represent a real disadvantage for adoption.
Economic profitability
As already mentioned one
of the ideas that supersede the 3D-doodler is the 3D-printer. In April of last
year, the Solidoodle, a $500 3D printer was launched. This was at that point of
time a surprisingly low price since this kind of products had seemingly set the
standard for consumer-facing 3D-printer pricing at around $2,000. The
3D-doodler is only going to cost $75 at launch, and the company promises that
if you get in early on the company's recently launched Kickstarter you will be
able to get one for $50. The 3D-Doodler uses the same type of plastic as a 3D
printer, namely 3mm ABS or PLA plastic. 3D-Doodler-compatible plastic is
available in 1kg spools from between $30 to $55 from a variety of sources. The
average 1kg spool of 3mm plastic contains approximately 360-370 feet of
plastic, which is approximately 3,960-4,070 feet of 3Doodling. In other words
it is both affordable to invest in the device and to use it. This initial low
cost of the innovation may contribute to affect the rate of adoption positively.
Relative Advantage: Perceived as a high degree
2: Compatibility
Compatibility is the
degree to which an innovation is perceived as consistent with the existing
values, past experiences, and needs of potential adopters.
The idea is to reduce
the potential adopter`s uncertainty and ensure that the product is perceived as
well fitted with the individuals situation.
Compatibility with
values and beliefs, previously ideas and needs
The 3D-doodle`s target
group is big and consists of people from many different creative fields. (See
the defined target group at the top) It is possible that the ones that use
3D-modeling to perform in their professional work have beliefs that are
incompatible with the product. For example engineers might believe the
3D-doodle is too imprecise to use in modeling and would rather want to rely on
more mathematical precise modeling. This
could result in them blocking its adoption.
More specific needs, like the tentative perceived need for more
precision, could however be met after the 3D-doodle`s launch as a result of a
targeted joint problem solving dialog with the specific target groups. Since no
one is used to the idea of physically drawing in 3D, it could represent a
barrier to adoption to have to learn how to operate this new idea. However as
Rogers interestingly points out, “while most innovations that are higher in
perceived compatibility have a more rapid rate of adoption, the reverse may be
true for artworks. If aesthetic
innovations are too closely derivate of older works, they are unlikely to meet
much critical or economic success” Artwork must in other words be somewhat
radical if they are to diffuse rapidly.
Another interesting aspect is that there surely are purists who oppose
to the increasing digitalization of everything and who feel that drawings and
modeling should be done with pen and paper or with some sorts of building
materials. The 3D-Doodle might be a natural extension of this need for them.
All in all I would say that the product is compatible with modern societies to
a considerable degree.
Compatibility: perceived as a considerable degree
3: Complexity
Complexity is the degree
to which an innovation is perceived as relatively difficult to understand and
use.
The 3D-doodle is easy to
understand, it does not require any technical knowledge, software or computers.
It should be relatively intuitive to use since everyone is used to draw and
sketch with a traditional pen. It can be
used for drawing on any surface and it can be lifted up into the air in order
to create 3D objects. The 3D-doodle
meets the need to be able to draw and design more easily in 3D. However, in
order to be master this 3D-element good, some practice and instructions is
needed. The company promises to post ”how to”- videos, explanations, user
guides, online tutorials and forums ahead of delivery so that the users can
master the product. The product should therefore be perceived as relatively
easy to both understand and use for the people in the target groups.
Complexity: perceived as a relatively low degree
4: Trialability
Trialability is the
degree to which an innovation may be experimented with on a limited basis.
New ideas that can be
tried on the installment plan are generally adopted more rapidly than
innovations that are not divisible. At this point the company`s answer to
potential users that want to do testing and beta testing, is that they do not
have the capacity for it yet, but they will work to make testing slots open up
as soon as they get to launch the product.
Aimed at the potential early adopters in the different target groups
this could promote more rapid rates of adoption as it could contribute to important
feedback resulting in re-inventing to customize the product more closely to the
target groups conditions. It could also dispel uncertainty about the product
and generate an awareness to be further built on at the time of the launch. Unfortunately the 3D-doodle has a low degree
of trialabilty. But, the product has however a group of designated testers, as
well as four backers that they refer to as “Über Early Adopters”. This will
hopefully result in important feedback resulting in re-invention, but it does
not promote the awareness - or reducing of uncertainty effects amongst the
potential adopters.
Trialability: Perceived as a low degree
5: Observability
Observability is the
degree to which the results of an innovation are visible to others.
Naturally some ideas are
easily observed and communicated to other people, whereas other innovations are
difficult to observe or to describe to others. This innovation consists of the
hardware aspect; the pen itself, and secondly, the product of the pen, the 3D-drawing.
People can see the product when it is used, if they are present in the creation
but this need not necessarily be a “public scene”. The end product is a very
physical and easily observed object but it also requires physical presence of
the observer. If the product is on display the former is the case, if not there
are no easy ways of sending it rapidly around across long distances, as is the
case for an innovation of a digital format. However, if the target groups use
the product it will be observable among them and if they use the end product
for more commercial purposes, as in that they sell the items or put them in art
exhibitions: the product can be made very observable. I therefore find that the
3D- Doodler have a perceived intermediate degree of observability.
Observability: perceived as an intermediate degree
Conclusion
1: Relative Advantage:
Perceived as a high degree.
2: Compatibility:
perceived as a considerable degree
3: Complexity: Perceived
as a relatively low degree
4: Trialability: Perceived
as a low degree
5: Observability:
perceived as an intermediate degree
Based on the five
perceived characteristics of the product I predict that the 3D-doodler will be
adopted and that the rate of adoption has the potential to not be slow. I
certainly want a 3D-DODLER myself.
References
• Everett M Rogers, Diffusion of innovations, chapter 1 and
6
• Link to my product: http://www.the3doodler.com/
• General searches on the web on 3D-printers
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